Is Miami's Foreign Buyer Dependency Suddenly Vulnerability For Condo Market?

In this issue of the Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™, we explore a new Miami Association Of Realtors report that concludes foreign buyers represent 49% of all preconstruction condo sales.

Volume 2025, Issue 33 (Subscribe here)

For this week’s Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™ newsletter, we explore a new July 21, 2025, report from the Miami Association of Realtors that concluded 49 percent of the South Florida preconstruction condo units purchased in the last 18 months through June 2025 were contracted by foreign buyers.

(Please note, it is unknown why the report examines an 18-month period rather than a more common six- or 12-month review.)

Previously, a diversified buyer pool of 49 percent foreign buyers would likely have been considered a good thing by South Florida condo developers as it provided a hedge against any domestic buyer disruptions.

Now, this core strength of relying on foreign buyers to purchase nearly half of all South Florida preconstruction condos could be considered a systemic vulnerability

After all, if international investors fail to show up at the same levels as they have previously, developers will have to find an alternative source of buyers.

The reliability of foreign investors has become a question in recent months following the launch of President Donald Trump’s ”mass-deportation operation.” These efforts - which rely on masked agents from the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) - aim to round up individuals suspected of living in the country illegally.

In support of this initiative, Florida recently opened the new Alligator Alcatraz detention center about 50 miles west of Miami’s Brickell City Centre in the Everglades, off of Southwest 8th Street.

For their part, Miami-Dade County, the City of Miami and other local municipalities have all agreed to “help ICE arrest undocumented immigrants,” according to the Miami Herald.

In response to news reports, social media video posts and protests around the nation, several countries including Canada, Germany, France and the United Kingdom have advised their citizens who plan to visit the United States to “strictly follow the country's entry rules or risk detention as the Trump administration cracks down on immigration enforcement,” according to NPR.

These travel warnings potentially undercut the effective marketing campaigns created over the years by Visit Florida - a public-private partnership between the state and Florida’s tourism industry - that have successfully promoted beaches, turquoise water and palm trees to prospective tourists worldwide.

Given the current perception overseas about how the United States sometimes treats foreign nationals, a number of questions need to be asked by developers, lenders and real estate professionals who specialize in South Florida’s condo market. These questions include:

• Does the South Florida condo market face systemic risk from its dependency on foreign buyers?

• Are local condo prices sustainable if fewer foreign buyers are interested in South Florida?

• Are condo lending requirements appropriate in this current market?

• Who will fill the gap if foreign investors lose interest in South Florida condos?

• What happens if Miami condo developers can no longer rely on selling preconstruction units internationally through online marketing campaigns and overseas investor roadshows?

We addressed some of these questions last week in our report entitled, ”Are Miami Condo Prices Sustainable With Fewer Foreign Buyers?”

Our questions were prompted by a new report from Miami International Airport (MIA) that revealed a 1.2 percent drop in international passenger traffic through the airport in the first half of 2025.

Coming into 2025, projections had MIA’s international passenger traffic growing by about 8.5 percent this year, just as it had in the years 2023 and 2024.

If this pace continues, MIA would experience a 9.7 percent swing in international passengers - some of whom are surely prospective condo buyers - coming into the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

What does this represent in terms of a people count?

It works out to about 2.1 million passengers (both enplaned and deplaned) who will potentially not be coming through MIA.

In terms of total international passenger traffic, MIA is on pace for about 25.2 million (both enplaned and deplaned) this year compared to a 2025 projection for 27.3 million.

If this trend continues, it would mark the first time that MIA international passenger traffic is down since the pandemic year of 2020.

Bigger picture, it would also be only the fourth time in 20 years that MIA international traffic is down.

The only other years of declining MIA international passenger traffic were 2009, 2014 and 2020.

It is not to say that some foreign nationals are not visiting South Florida after flying into alternative airports such as Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach or even Orlando.

Anyone who has spent time watching, analyzing or participating in the South Florida condo market knows that international buyers are the lifeblood of the industry where there are some 13,000 associations with about 610,000 units.

Cultural affinity, climate and the reliability of the U.S. system have been key drivers for the success of the South Florida condo market, especially for international buyers who are seeking a safe haven for investment.

People visit South Florida for the weather, beaches and entertainment and often consider moving to the tricounty region.

Once they decide to invest, their friends and family inevitably visit South Florida and begin to consider investing in the tricounty region as well.

The process continues on in an endless loop.

This has been a cornerstone of the South Florida real estate industry since the 1920s Florida Land Boom, which was dominated by domestic buyers but has since evolved to include foreign investors, including international companies the likes of Hong Kong-based Swire Properties, Mexico City-based Agave Holdings and Kuala Lumpur-based Genting.

As a result, some 42 percent of South Florida’s 6.1 million residents are foreign born based on Census Bureau statistics. Foreign-born residents represent about:

• 55 percent of Miami-Dade County’s 2.7 million population;

• 38 percent of Broward County’s 1.9 million population;

• And 28 percent of Palm Beach County’s 1.5 million population.

The mixture of domestic and foreign buyers has long been a recipe for success, viability and a safety net in times of distress.

During the Great Recession when U.S. consumers were tapped out and real estate values were plummeting, it was the foreign buyers armed with rich currencies who absorbed a large chunk of South Florida’s distressed condos.

South Florida condo prices have spiked by about 69 percent from the 2019-2020 Winter Buying Season when the pandemic first surfaced.

It is against this backdrop that the new Miami Association of Realtors report is revealing.

The 17-page report provides some interesting insights from sellside brokers about just how important foreign buyers are to the preconstruction segment of South Florida’s condo market.

The report cites many of the local industry’s figureheads, including Alicia Cervera Lamadrid of Cervera Real Estate, Craig Studnicky of ISG World and Daniel de la Vega of ONE Sotheby’s International Realty.

All of these brokers had bullish outlooks about the future condo demand from foreign buyers, especially those from Latin America.

“Foreign buyers have not only remained active in Miami’s new development market - they’ve increased their presence,” Cervera Lamadrid said in the report.

Studnicky echoed this message, stating “Miami is as popular as ever with buyers from Latin America.”

ONE Sotheby’s International Realty’s de la Vega summarized foreign buyer interest in Miami condos this way in the report:

“Fueled by economic and political headwinds in their home countries, international buyers see South Florida as a safe haven to build wealth, preserve capital and secure their family’s future,” he said

“This is especially true for buyers from Latin America, who also feel an immediate cultural and lifestyle connection to the region.”

It is worth noting, a preconstruction condo sale is usually just a contract to purchase a unit in the future.

The buyer typically commits to paying up to 50 percent of the purchase price in advance, usually in installments. The remaining 50 percent of the contracted purchase price is typically collected at the closing when the unit is actually livable.

We are not lawyers so this explanation is for general understanding only. Check with your legal counsel for specifics.

This preconstruction buying process is critical to understand as investors are usually asked to entrust developers with payment advances on their future units as contracted.

The U.S. legal system offers recourse if something goes wrong, as it periodically does.

The Miami Association of Realtors report found that foreign buyers from Latin America account for about 86 percent of the international buyer share in South Florida.

The report notes that Latin American buyers account for a substantial amount of the preconstruction units sales in the following areas:

• Downtown Miami (99 percent);

• Miami’s Coconut Grove (97 percent);

• North Miami (93 percent);

• West Palm Beach (89 percent);

• Coral Gables (88 percent);

• Southeast Broward County (84 percent);

• Miami’s Wynwood (83 percent);

• Miami’s Brickell Avenue Area (79 percent);

• Fort Lauderdale (79 percent);

• And Miami Beach (77 percent).

The report does not breakdown the share of buyers from specific countries, only noting that investors are coming from countries with “Left-leaning governments in Latin America” such as (in this order):

• Mexico;

• Brazil;

• Colombia;

• Chile;

• Bolivia;

• Honduras;

• Venezuela;

• Cuba;

• Nicaragua;

• And Uruguay.

A lot has changed locally, statewide and nationally this year in the way that things are done. The unanswered question going forward is, does the South Florida condo market also need to change the way it sells, markets and builds units?

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This information is intended for general informational purposes only and is based on research, personal experience, and interviews. It does not constitute legal advice, as we are not legal professionals. While we strive for accuracy and completeness, this information is provided on an "as is" basis, without any warranties or guarantees.

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