In the January 2026 Monthly Virtual Meeting of the Miami Condo Investing Club™, expert Peter Zalewski outlines a South Florida market defined by a widening disconnect between seller pricing and the fundamentals required by disciplined investors.
All chart shown during the January 2026 Monthly Virtual Meeting are available with this link.
During his 78-minute presentation, Zalewski details the structural headwinds facing the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach where capitalization rates have fallen below 1% while condo resale inventory climbs.
Zalewski compares and contrasts the current condo market headwinds with the peak of the Great Florida Land Boom of the 1920s, suggesting that the convergence of high carrying costs and slowing sales velocity is creating a precarious environment for Vintage condos—units at least 30 years old—as owners rush to exit ahead of state-mandated reserve funding deadlines.
This dynamic—which Zalewski has termed the Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff since June 2024—is reshaping the market as cash-strapped owners attempt to exit while buyers wait on the sidelines for deep discounts.
Zalewski’s presentation provides a granular examination of market disparities, contrasting the relative strength of submarkets like Coconut Grove against the softening conditions in Aventura and Broward County, where supply significantly outweighs demand.
He guides viewers through an assessment of 33 projects in the Greater Downtown Miami market where asking prices have already retreated below the 2025 Summer Buying Season valuations, signaling an erosion in value that may accelerate after the traditional mid-February seasonal peak.
Zalewski combines this data with the potential impact of federal limits on Wall Street landlords to offer a clear strategy for buyers looking for real value as the South Florida condo market resets.
Episode Takeaways
South Florida condo cap rates are currently below 1%, making the market largely Uninvestable for investorsseeking returns.
The market is showing signs of a correction that mirrors the 100-year anniversary of the 1926 peak of the Great Florida Land Boom of the 1920s.
A proposed ban on Wall Street owning single-family rental homes could flood the market with distressed inventory and lower prices.
