Is Miami-Dade County's Condo Market Starting To Unravel?
The Jan. 28, 2025, update to the Miami Condo Cliff Index™ shows that Miami-Dade County's market for Overall condos and Vintage condos - at least 30 years old - are both weakening rapidly.
Is the Miami-Dade County condo market starting to unravel?
This is the question that investors may want to start pondering based on the latest metrics.
The number of condo listings on the market is increasing at the same time that the number of pending sales is decreasing on a week-over-week basis since the start of the year, according to the latest update to the Miami Condo Association Financial Cliff Investors Index™ as of Jan. 28, 2025.
Doubts about the condo market are growing among real estate agents amidst lackluster sales activity and stubbornly high mortgage rates as the tricounty South Florida region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach is quickly approaching the peak of the 2024-25 Winter Buying Season that extends from November through April.
Added to this, Florida state Rep. Mike Caruso (R-Delray Beach) predicted this week that a wave of condo foreclosures is headed for the sunshine state as soon as March after lawmakers called to Tallahassee for an emergency Special Session failed to address the growing requests for relief from cash-strapped unit owners, according to a recent report.
The growing sense of bearishness is becoming evident in a pair of indices - Vintage and Overall - focused on Miami-Dade County.
The Miami-Dade County Vintage Condo Cliff Index™ - which tracks units that are at least 30 years old - weakened for a second consecutive week and the third time in four weekly updates.
The Miami-Dade County Vintage Condo Cliff Index™ dropped 6.60 percent on a week-over-week basis to 7.84 points on Jan. 28, 2025, compared to 8.39 points on Jan. 21, 8.64 points on Jan. 14 and 8.46 points on Jan. 7.
The Miami-Dade County Vintage Condo Cliff Index™ started at 8.54 points when it was launched on Jan. 1, 2025.
In conjunction with this, the Miami-Dade County Overall Condo Cliff Index™ - which tracks new, used and Vintage units - also continues to weaken, dropping 2.28 percent on a week-over-week basis to 6.71 points on Jan. 28.
It is worth noting, the Miami-Dade Overall Condo Cliff Index™ has fallen ever week since being launched on Jan. 1, 2025, with a starting entry point of 7.16.
Previously, the Miami-Dade Overall Condo Cliff Index™ was 6.87 points on Jan. 21, 7.08 points on Jan. 14 and 7.14 points on Jan. 7.
The Miami Condo Cliff Index™ was created on Jan. 1, 2025, to coincide with the start of Florida’s 2025 Condo Association Financial Cliff.
The Miami Condo Cliff Index™ is a weekly measurement that tracks the financial health and stability of the South Florida condo market and submarkets based on active listings and pending sales for Overall condos and Vintage condos - at least 30 years old - in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.
The Condo Cliff Index™ is calculated by dividing the number of pending sales in a geographical area into the number of active listings in that same area, and then multiplying by 100.
This metric provides a weekly snapshot of market demand, with higher values indicating stronger demand and lower values indicating weaker demand.
Here are eight charts tracking Overall condos and Vintage condos on a week-over-week basis in South Florida, Miami-Dade County, Broward County and Palm Beach County since being launched on Jan. 1, 2025.