WSJ Confirms Florida Condo Associations Teeter At Edge Of Precarious 2025 Financial Cliff

In this issue of the Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™, we discuss the Wall Street Journal's confirmation that our projection of a 2025 Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff is taking hold.

Volume 2025, Issue 17 (Subscribe here)

For this week’s Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™ newsletter, we discuss a Wall Street Journal article published this week confirming our June 2024 prediction that Florida would experience a 2025 Condo Association Financial Cliff.

The article - entitled ”Why Florida's Condo Owners Are So Desperate to Sell” - is a 1,000-word story that details how owners are scrambling to offload their units and being forced to cut asking prices due to rising maintenance fees, special assessments and insurance rates.

“Florida is contending with a condo crisis, and the ballooning costs of ownership are a big reason why,” according to the story’s first sentence, which is called a lede in newsrooms.

Adding to the challenge is the fact that Fannie Mae - a buyer of mortgages on the secondary market - has expanded its “blacklist” to include more than 1,400 Florida condo associations that are not financeable due to inadequate “property insurance or (the) need to make critical building repairs,” according to the story.

At the time of our risky call, there was already a Fannie Mae “blacklist” but no way to predict that President Donald Trump would:

• Trigger a worldwide trade war that has led to heightened volatility in the global stock and bond markets;

• Or create a backlash with a growing number of foreign buyers - especially Canadians - who are now attempting to sell their Florida condos due to rising costs and negative sentiment about the United States.

In anticipation of Florida’s worsening situation, we launched a series of indices - under the brand name Miami Condo Association Financial Cliff Investors Index™ - on Jan. 1, 2025 to track 23 South Florida condo markets, ranging from Coral Gables north to West Palm Beach (Downtown - Island), and everything in between in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

So far, the index has led us to successfully predict that South Florida condo prices - which had been holding firm despite a slowdown in sales - would fall in Q1 2025.

The Miami Condo Cliff Index™ is a weekly measurement that tracks the financial health and stability of the South Florida condo market based on active listings and pending sales for Overall condos and Vintage condos (at least 30 years old) in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

Unlike traditional condo sales statistics that lag weeks or months behind, the Miami Condo Cliff Index™ tracks weekly fluctuations in active listings and pending sales, providing a realtime snapshot of the South Florida condo market.

This approach offers a forward-looking perspective, previewing trends that will be reflected in upcoming quarterly statistics.

It is worth noting that for the first time in about 15 years, we began being approached in April 2025 by developers who are looking to offload large blocks of unsold condo units referred to as bulk deals and or entitled “luxury” development sites at a discount, according to a recent report.

Each developer - all of whom claim their projects are not in distress - cited price discovery as the reason for reaching out so that they can gauge institutional demand for their projects.

During the Great Recession, these bulk deal transactions typically represented an opportunity for cash-rich buyers and a lifeline for cash-strapped sellers.

The buyers generally benefited from being able to acquire new condo units at prices that were below replacement cost in return for purchasing at a time when others were afraid to do so.

For the sellers, the bulk deals usually provided a solution for the developers to offload large blocks of unsold units and secure a much-needed capital infusion to stay afloat, stave off lenders or wind down projects.

Given our success calling the 2025 Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff, we are going to press our luck with another prediction.

We realize that making market predictions can be a fool’s errand as the cliche goes but sometimes the macro outlook seems clear, especially for industry watchers who experienced the Great Recession at the beginning of this century.

In January 2025, we created an uproar in South Florida real estate brokerage circles by predicting a 40-percent price decline for condo prices from the peak of the pandemic buying boom.

We are going to double down on that prediction given the developments following the global stock and bond market volatility resulting from President Trump’s everchanging tariff strategy.

For those who want to keep track, here are the tentative condo price per unit averages - final prices will be provided once this South Florida Winter Buying Season ends next week - by which to measure our predictions of 40-percent price decreases:

• $602,500 per unit in South Florida;

• $880,600 per unit in Miami-Dade County;

• $345,400 per unit in Broward County;

• And $571,400 per unit in Palm Beach County.

It is worth noting that we are sharing a portion of our research for free with subscribers to our newsletter and readers of MiamiCondo.Club.

If you want access to all of our published reports, statistical charts, monthly virtual meetings and Meetup events, we would encourage you to join the Miami Condo Investing Club™.

The objective of the Club is to create a community that shares realtime, actionable information on the latest real estate trends, opportunities and service providers in South Florida.

The Club is ideally suited for Do-It-Yourself (DIY) condo buyers and real estate professionals, alike, who can rely on our latest statistics, expert opinions and access to consulting services.

Additionally, we encourage you to listen or view our podcast wherever you get podcasts. The podcast is available on Apple, Spotify and or YouTube.

As a reminder, we are always available for consulting, expert witness work and buyside brokerage services just as we have been since 2006.

If you are seeking information on distressed condo resales in South Florida, please visit CondoVulturesRealty.com or call the office at 305.865.5859.

— Peter Zalewski, Founder of the Miami Condo Investing Club™

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The views and opinions expressed in this report are for general informational purposes only. It is believed to be accurate and complete based on current market trends but cannot be guaranteed or warranted as circumstances change without notice. It should not be considered as financial, legal, tax or investment advice. This content should not be relied upon as the sole basis for making any financial decisions. Before making any investment or financial decisions, you should consult with a qualified professional to determine the suitability of any investment or strategy for your individual circumstances and goals.

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