Zalewski Stands By 40% Miami Condo Price Drop Prediction Despite Pushback
The weekly 'Miami Hal Real Estate Show' with host Hal Feldman featured Peter Zalewski for a discussion about the Miami condo market and his controversial call for a significant price drop.
Is longtime Miami real estate consultant Peter Zalewski pushing his luck with his latest condo prediction?
After successfully predicting a year ago that Florida would experience a 2025 Condo Association Financial Cliff as recently confirmed by the Wall Street Journal, Zalewski doubled down on his latest call that South Florida condo prices could fall as much as 40 percent from recent highs.
Despite pushback from local unit owners and sellside residential real estate professionals, Zalewski appeared on the live broadcast of the weekly “Miami Hal Real Estate Show” program with host Hal Feldman to explain his prediction.
The Miami Community News produced the show from its newsroom studio in South Miami.
Instead of walking back the call of a major price drop, Zalewski said he is growing increasingly confident that condo prices could unravel even more than originally predicted.
At the time of his prediction in January 2025, Zalewski cited surging condo costs in the aftermath of the Surfside condo collapse coupled with a significant shift away from the work-from-home investor boom that followed 2020.
Zalewski’s original call came before the financial turmoil that resulted from President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff strategy that was announced on April 2, 2025.
The new tariff policy that assesses a minimum 10-percent duty on imports has sparked uncertainty due to volatility in stock, bond and currency markets.
Watch The Interview
Zalewski first announced his prediction of a 40 percent price drop for condos in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach in a The South Florida Business Journal story on Jan. 6, 2025.
To date, South Florida condo prices have decreased marginally despite the region facing a mushrooming supply of condo listings on the resale market and a dramatic drop in unit transactions.
It is worth noting, Miami-Dade County Property Appraiser Tomas Regalado warned at a June 2, 2025, press conference that the “next great crisis” in the real estate market will likely occur in the condo market.
Regalado made his comments at the press conference where he released the 2025 Miami-Dade County Property Value Estimates.
The county, school board and cities of Miami-Dade use the estimates to create their budgets for the upcoming year.
Regalado blamed the drop in 2025 condo valuations in a variety of cities, including Aventura, Coral Gables and North Bay Village, on rising maintenance fees, hefty special assessments and pricey insurance rates, according to a recent report.
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