Greater Downtown Miami Flooded With 16 Months Of Condo Resale Supply
In this latest issue of the Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™, we examine the Greater Downtown Miami condo market at the halfway point of the 2024-25 Winter Buying Season.
Volume 2025, Issue 6 (Subscribe here)
For this week’s Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™ newsletter, we are examining the Greater Downtown Miami condo market at the halfway point of the 2024-25 South Florida Winter Buying Season that stretches from November through April.
It is unclear at this point how the start of the 2025 Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff is impacting the Greater Downtown Miami market, which is defined as the Julia Tuttle Causeway south to the Eddie Rickenbacker Causeway, and Biscayne Bay west to Interstate 95.
In anticipation of this pivotal year for Florida condos following new laws implemented in the wake of the Surfside tragedy, we dug into the current listings and the final 2024 condo statistics to evaluate how the Greater Downtown Miami market is performing.
The metrics are not encouraging.
We discovered that the Greater Downtown Miami condo market - which was a sellers market in 2021, 2022 and less so in 2023 - is firmly in a buyers market, according to statistics compiled by the buyside brokerage CondoVulturesRealty.com.
Currently, Greater Downtown Miami has nearly 16 months of supply listed for resale a little more than one month into the start of the 2025 Condo Cliff.
In 2024, buyers purchased an average of nearly 161 condo units monthly in Greater Downtown Miami.
If the 2024 transaction pace were to continue in 2025, it would take more than five financial quarters for all of the units to trade if no new listings were put on the market.
This seems unlikely as cash-strapped unit owners are facing skyrocketing maintenance fees, hefty special assessments and stubbornly high mortgage rates.
As a rule of thumb, a balanced market has about six months of supply available for resale. More months indicates a buyers market and less months a sellers market.
In terms of the strength of the Greater Downtown Miami market, the number of resale listings is growing at about the same pace percentage wise as the number of condos going under contract.
Consider that on Jan. 1, 2025, Greater Downtown Miami had about 2,364 condos listed for resale and about 111 units under contract.
Fast forward a month later to Feb. 3, 2025, Greater Downtown Miami had about 2,548 condos listed for resale - an increase of nearly eight percent - and about 122 pending sales - and increase of about 10 percent - waiting to transact, according to a new report.
As a result, the Greater Downtown Miami Condo Association Financial Cliff Index™ strengthened marginally in the last month, improving by nearly two percent to 4.79 points on Feb. 3, 2025, compared to 4.70 points when the index was first launched on Jan. 1, 2025.
Despite the slight improvement, the Greater Downtown Miami Condo Cliff Index™ is far weaker than respective indices for South Florida (6.70 points), Miami-Dade County (6.73 points), Broward County (6.52 points) and Palm Beach County (6.94 points), according to a new report.
Surprisingly, Vintage condos - units that are at least 30 years old and bogging down most other South Florida markets - represent less than 10 percent of the resale listings in Greater Downtown Miami, according to a new report.
For Greater Downtown Miami condo sellers who are hoping to achieve their asking prices, Vintage condos are available at significant discounts compared to the overall market.
For example, the average asking price for a Greater Downtown Miami Vintage condo is about $760,410 per unit and about $593 per square foot.
Compare this to the overall Greater Downtown Miami condo market where the average asking price is more than $1.4 million per unit and about $896 per square foot.
As a result, condo sellers that are competing with Vintage units could increasingly be faced with the likelihood of having to reduce their asking prices in the upcoming year to get deals done.
Industry watchers have said that value-minded buyers may be willing to once again consider Vintage condos - despite the Surfside condo collapse - if the units are located in buildings that have completed their necessary life-safety examinations as required by the revised Florida Condo Law.
It is worth noting that we share a portion of our research for free with subscribers to our newsletter and readers of MiamiCondo.Club.
If you want access to all of our published information and charts, we would encourage you to join the Miami Condo Investing Club™.
The objective of the Club is to create a community that shares realtime, actionable information on the latest real estate trends, opportunities and service providers in South Florida.
The Club is ideally suited for Do-It-Yourself (DIY) condo buyers and real estate professionals, alike, who can rely on our latest statistics, expert opinions and access to consulting services.
Additionally, we encourage you to listen or view our podcast wherever you get podcasts. The podcast is available on Apple, Spotify and/or YouTube.
As a reminder, we are always available for consulting, expert witness work and buyside brokerage services just as we have been since 2006.
If you are seeking information on condo resales in South Florida, please visit CondoVulturesRealty.com or call the office at 305.865.5859.
— Peter Zalewski, Founder of the Miami Condo Investing Club™
Story 1
Greater Downtown Miami Condo Prices 157% Overinflated At Winter Season Peak
Halfway through the 2024-25 South Florida Winter Buying Season, Greater Downtown Miami condo prices are highly overinflated based on the "1% Rule" commonly used by investors.
Story 2
Greater Downtown Miami Vintage Condos Offered At 46% Discount
Vintage condos are units located in buildings that are at least 30 years old. Florida requires Vintage condo buildings to undergo strenuous Milestone Studies to ensure life safety for residents.
Story 3
Is This South Florida Winter Buying Season A Time To Purchase Or Wait?
Expert Peter Zalewski of the Miami Condo Market Investing Club™ will discuss this Winter Buying Season at the next Monthly Meeting at Noon (EST) on Wednesday, Feb. 12.
Story 4
This Is Best Time To Submit Lowball Offers For South Florida Condos
The South Florida Winter Buying Season (November through April) is a busy time for condo sellers to hook prospective buyers. The optimism usually changes as summer gets closer.
The views and opinions expressed in this report are for general informational purposes only. It is believed to be accurate and complete based on current market trends but cannot be guaranteed or warranted as circumstances change without notice. It should not be considered as financial, legal, tax or investment advice. This content should not be relied upon as the sole basis for making any financial decisions. Before making any investment or financial decisions, you should consult with a qualified professional to determine the suitability of any investment or strategy for your individual circumstances and goals.
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