Atlanta Fed Warns Of Impending 'Condo Crisis' In South Florida

In this issue of the Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™, we analyze a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta highlighting the growing challenges for the South Florida condo market.

Volume 2025, Issue 29 (Subscribe here)

For this week’s Miami Condo Market Intelligence Report™ newsletter, we provide an overview - while taking a victory lap - of a new report titled “From Sunny Skies To A Cloudy Outlook For South Florida's Condo Market” published by the Federal Reserve Bank Of Atlanta on July 10, 2025.

Watch a video readout of the Atlanta Fed report below.

The Atlanta Fed is the second influential entity - after the Wall Street Journal in April 2025 - to confirm our call in June 2024 that Florida would experience a 2025 Condo Association Financial Cliff as a result of the Surfside condo collapse.

For the past year, we have predicted a dramatic condo market slowdown in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach driven by cash-strapped units owners rushing to unload properties amid rising maintenance fees, hefty special assessments and pricey insurance rates.

The Atlanta Fed - which is part of the U.S. central bank system - confirms our call with this new report that states that South Florida is facing a “condo crisis.”

For anyone who is not aware, the Atlanta Fed is responsible for the Southeastern United States, and operates a Miami branch that is located in the western Miami-Dade County suburb of Doral.

In the 1,600-word report, the Atlanta Fed warns that the South Florida region is facing a “condo crisis” due to several factors, including:

• Increasing resale supply;

• Decreasing transactions;

• Affordability challenges;

• Increasing risk of foreclosure, especially for unit owners on fixed incomes;

• And an “in-migration” slowdown.

“The condo crisis in South Florida poses broader risks for the local economy and for consumers, particularly those in lower-income communities,” according to the Atlanta Fed report. “As families struggle to afford the increased costs of ownership, some may face foreclosure or be forced to sell their units to investors who will rebuild them for mixed-use or more expensive housing, which in turn exacerbate the issue of housing affordability in the region as many individuals and families could be forced to seek alternative living arrangements, potentially outside of South Florida.

“This also has ripple effects for labor markets, business growth, and the overall longer-term competitiveness of the region.”

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Watch A Readout Of The Atlanta Fed’s Condo Report

This 12-minute video of the Atlanta Fed’s new report “From Sunny Skies To A Cloudy Outlook For South Florida’s Condo Market” was created by copying the text of the report and pasting it into a video file. The text was not edited in any way. The audio is AI generated based on the voice of veteran Miami condo consultant Peter Zalewski of the Miami Condo Investing Club. To read the report and view the charts, please visit: https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/regional-economics

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The Atlanta Fed’s report confirms many of the risks that we pointed out a year ago to readers of MiamiCondo.Club.

In June 2024, we predicted a 2025 Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff resulting from new statewide legislation adopted in the aftermath of the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021.

In the wake of the Surfside tragedy when nearly 100 people died and a $1 billion settlement was paid out to the families of the victims, the Florida Legislature approved a series of changes - and has continued to do so as recently as this year - to the Florida Condo Law.

The legislative moves have resulted in a spike in the months of resale supply, a drop in transactions and an overall bearishness about South Florida condos.

In anticipation of today’s deteriorating market, we launched a series of indices - branded as the Miami Condo Association Financial Cliff Investors Index™ - on Jan. 1, 2025, to track 23 South Florida condo markets, ranging from Coral Gables north to West Palm Beach (Downtown - Island), and everything in between in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

The Index, so far, has accurately provided us with realtime insights into the state of the South Florida condo market, front-running the market-moving statistics for completed transactions - or closed sales - that are released quarterly by the real estate industry.

Along the way in April 2025, the Wall Street Journal also confirmed that South Florida condo owners were facing economic disaster as a result of the looming 2025 Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff.

Given the increasing amount of information that is surfacing, it was no surprise that at the start of the 2025 Summer Buying Season - May through October - the South Florida condo market began its wet season with the greatest number of listings on the market since 2016, according to a recent report.

Added to this, more than 57 percent of all South Florida condos are now priced below $400,000 per unit, according to a recent report.

For months, press reports have chronicled how owners are scrambling to offload their units but facing resistance as it is currently cheaper - by about $21,000 annually - to rent rather than own in South Florida at this time.

Even developers of new condo projects are feeling the slowdown. An increasing number of developers are slashing deposit requirements and raising buyside commissions to brokers, according to a recent report.

Exacerbating the situation is the fact that industry watchers are grappling with understanding the ramifications of the Liberation Day tariff policy introduced on April 2, 2025.

Going forward, the Atlanta Fed report only reinforces our January 2025 call that South Florida condo prices could fall as much as 40 percent from the recent highs achieved between 2020 and 2024.

We are pleased to offer a portion of our research for free to our newsletter subscribers and MiamiCondo.Club readers, providing a glimpse into our insights.

For full access to our comprehensive reports, statistical charts, virtual Monthly Meetings and exclusive MeetUp events, we invite you to join the Miami Condo Investing Club™.

The Club's mission is to foster a community that shares realtime, actionable intelligence on the latest real estate trends, emerging opportunities and trusted service providers throughout South Florida.

Whether you are a Do-It-Yourself (DIY) condo buyer or a seasoned real estate professional, the Club provides invaluable resources, including up-to-date statistics, expert analysis and access to tailored consulting services.

An added benefit of the Club is that members receive discounts on all Miami Condo Correction Walking Tours™. Please visit MiamiCondoClub.eventbrite.com for a schedule of upcoming tours.

We also encourage you to explore our podcast, available on all major platforms such as Apple, Spotify and YouTube, for insightful discussions and updates.

As always, our consulting, expert witness and buyside brokerage services remain available to you, building on our established reputation since 2006.

For specific information regarding discounted condo resales or bulk deals in South Florida, please visit CondoVulturesRealty.com or contact our office directly at 305.865.5859.

— Peter Zalewski, Founder of the Miami Condo Investing Club™

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This information is intended for general informational purposes only and is based on research, personal experience, and interviews. It does not constitute legal advice, as we are not legal professionals. While we strive for accuracy and completeness, this information is provided on an "as is" basis, without any warranties or guarantees.

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